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Box 6.3 Deltas and megadeltas: hotspots for vulnerability
Deltas, some of the largest sedimentary deposits in the world, are widely recognised as highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise and changes in runoff, as well as being subject to stresses imposed by human modification of catchment and delta plain land use. Most deltas are already undergoing natural subsidence that results in accelerated rates of relative sea-level rise above the global average. Many are impacted by the effects of water extraction and diversion, as well as declining sediment input as a consequence of entrapment in dams. Delta plains, particularly those in Asia (Chapter 10, Section 10.6.1), are densely populated and large numbers of people are often impacted as a result of external terrestrial influences (river floods, sediment starvation) and/or external marine influences (storm surges, erosion) (see Figure 6.1).
Ericson et al. (2006) estimated that nearly 300 million people inhabit a sample of 40 deltas globally, including all the large megadeltas. Average population density is 500 people/km2 with the largest population in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, and the highest density in the Nile delta. Many of these deltas and megadeltas are associated with significant and expanding urban areas. Ericson et al. (2006) used a generalised modelling approach to approximate the effective rate of sea-level rise under present conditions, basing estimates of sediment trapping and flow diversion on a global dam database, and modifying estimates of natural subsidence to incorporate accelerated human-induced subsidence. This analysis showed that much of the population of these 40 deltas is at risk through coastal erosion and land loss, primarily as a result of decreased sediment delivery by the rivers, but also through accentuated rates of sea-level rise. They estimate, using a coarse digital terrain model and global population distribution data, that more than 1 million people will be directly affected by 2050 in three megadeltas: the Ganges- Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, the Mekong delta in Vietnam and the Nile delta in Egypt. More than 50,000 people are likely to be directly impacted in each of a further 9 deltas, and more than 5,000 in each of a further 12 deltas (Figure 6.6). This generalised modelling approach indicates that 75% of the population affected live on Asian megadeltas and deltas, and a large proportion of the remainder are on deltas in Africa. These impacts would be exacerbated by accelerated sea-level rise and enhanced human pressures (e.g., Chapter 10, Section 10.6.1). Within the Asian megadeltas, the surface topography is complex as a result of the geomorphological development of the deltas, and the population distribution shows considerable spatial variability, reflecting the intensive land use and the growth of some of the world’s largest megacities (Woodroffe et al., 2006). Man people in these and other deltas worldwide are already subject to flooding from both storm surges and seasonal river floods, and therefore it is necessary to develop further methods to assess individual delta vulnerability (e.g., Sánchez-Arcilla et al., 2006).
 Figure 6.6. Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas as shown by the indicative population potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050 (Extreme = >1 million; High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5,000; following Ericson et al., 2006). 6.4.1.3 Estuaries and lagoons
Global mean sea-level rise will generally lead to higher relative coastal water levels and increasing salinity in estuarine systems, thereby tending to displace existing coastal plant and animal communities inland. Estuarine plant and animal communities may persist as sea level rises if migration is not blocked and if the rate of change does not exceed the capacity of natural communities to adapt or migrate. Climate change impacts on one or more ‘leverage species’, however, can result in sweeping community level changes (Harley et al., 2006).
Some of the greatest potential impacts of climate change on estuaries may result from changes in physical mixing characteristics caused by changes in freshwater runoff (Scavia et al., 2002). A globally intensified hydrologic cycle and regional changes in runoff all portend changes in coastal water quality (Section 6.3.2). Freshwater inflows into estuaries influence water residence time, nutrient delivery, vertical stratification, salinity and control of phytoplankton growth rates. Increased freshwater inflows decrease water residence time and increase vertical stratification, and vice versa (Moore et al., 1997). The effects of altered residence times can have significant effects on phytoplankton populations, which have the potential to increase fourfold per day. Consequently, in estuaries with very short water residence times, phytoplankton are generally flushed from the system as fast as they can grow, reducing the estuary’s susceptibility to eutrophication[3] and harmful algal blooms (HABs) (Section 6.4.2.4). Changes in the timing of freshwater delivery to estuaries could lead to a decoupling of the juvenile phases of many estuarine and marine fishery species from the available nursery habitat. In some hypersaline lagoonal systems, such as the Laguna Madre of Mexico and Texas, sea-level rise will increase water depths, leading to increased tidal exchange and hence reduced salinity (cf. Quammen and Onuf, 1993).
Increased water temperature could also affect algal production and the availability of light, oxygen and carbon for other estuarine species (Short and Neckles, 1999). The propensity for HABs is further enhanced by the fertilisation effect of increasing dissolved CO2 levels. Increased water temperature also affects important microbial processes such as nitrogen fixation and denitrification in estuaries (Lomas et al., 2002). Water temperature regulates oxygen and carbonate solubility, viral pestilence, pH and conductivity, and photosynthesis and respiration rates of estuarine macrophytes4. While temperature is important in regulating physiological processes in estuaries (Lomas et al., 2002), predicting the ecological outcome is complicated by the feedbacks and interactions among temperature change and independent physical and biogeochemical processes such as eutrophication (cf. Section 6.2.4)
Decreased seawater pH and carbonate saturation (Mackenzie et al., 2001; Caldeira and Wickett, 2005) has at least two important consequences: the potential for reducing the ability of carbonate flora and fauna to calcify; and the potential for enhanced dissolution of nutrients and carbonate minerals in sediments (Andersson et al., 2003; Royal Society, 2005; Turley et al., 2006). As these potential impacts could be significant, it is important to improve understanding of them.
The landward transgression of natural estuarine shorelines as sea level rises has been summarised by Pethick (2001), who adopted a mass balance approach based on an equilibrium assumption resulting in landward retreat of the entire estuarine system. In this view, sea level rise of 6 mm causes 10 m of retreat of the Blackwater estuary, UK, and only 8 m of retreat for the Humber estuary, UK, due to the steeper gradient of the latter. The Humber estuary will also likely experience a deepening of the main channel, changes in tidal regime and larger waves that will promote further erosion around the margins (Winn et al., 2003). In Venice Lagoon, Italy, the combination of sea-level rise, altered sediment dynamics, and geological land subsidence has lowered the lagoon floor, widened tidal inlets, submerged tidal flats and islands, and caused the shoreline to retreat around the lagoon circumference (Fletcher and Spencer, 2005). In situations where the area of intertidal environments has been reduced by embanking or reclamation, the initial response will be a lowering of remaining tidal flats and infilling of tidal channels. Depending on tidal characteristics, the availability of marine sediment, and the rate of sea-level rise, the remaining tidal flats may either be further drowned, or their relative level in the tidal frame may be maintained, as shown by several tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea (Dronkers, 2005).
A projected increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones and other coastal storms (Section 6.3.2) could alter bottom sediment dynamics, organic matter inputs, phytoplankton and fisheries populations, salinity and oxygen levels, and biogeochemical processes in estuaries (Paerl et al., 2001). The role of powerful storms in structuring estuarine sediments and biodiversity is illustrated in the stratigraphic record of massive, episodic estuary infilling of Bohai Bay, China during the Holocene, with alternating oyster reefs and thick mud deposits (Wang and Fan, 2005).
6.4.1.4 Mangroves, saltmarshes and sea grasses
Coastal vegetated wetlands are sensitive to climate change and long-term sea-level change as their location is intimately linked to sea level. Modelling of all coastal wetlands (but excluding sea grasses) by McFadden et al. (2007a) suggests global losses from 2000 to 2080 of 33% and 44% given a 36 cm and 72 cm rise in sea level, respectively. Regionally, losses would be most severe on theAtlantic and Gulf ofMexico coasts of North and Central America, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, the Baltic and most small island regions due to their low tidal range (Nicholls, 2004). However, wetland processes are complex, and Cahoon et al. (2006) developed a broad regional to global geographical model relating wetland accretion, elevation, and shallow subsidence in different plate tectonic, climatic and geomorphic settings for both temperate saltmarshes and tropical mangrove forests. Changes in storm intensity can also affect vegetated coastal wetlands. Cahoon et al. (2003) analysed the elevation responses from a variety of hurricane-influenced coastal settings and found that a storm can simultaneously influence both surface and subsurface soil processes, but with much variability.
Saltmarshes (halophytic grasses, sedges, rushes and succulents) are common features of temperate depositional coastlines. Hydrology and energy regimes are two key factors that influence the coastal zonation of the plant species which typically grade inland from salt, to brackish, to freshwater species. Climate change will likely have its most pronounced effects on brackish and freshwater marshes in the coastal zone through alteration of hydrological regimes (Burkett and Kusler, 2000; Baldwin et al., 2001; Sun et al., 2002), specifically, the nature and variability of hydroperiod and the number and severity of extreme events. Other variables – altered biogeochemistry, altered amounts and pattern of suspended sediments loading, fire, oxidation of organic sediments, and the physical effects of wave energy – may also play important roles in determining regional and local impacts.
Sea-level rise does not necessarily lead to loss of saltmarsh areas, especially where there are significant tides, because these marshes accrete vertically and maintain their elevation relative to sea level where the supply of sediment is sufficient (Hughes, 2004; Cahoon et al., 2006). The threshold at which wetlands drown varies widely depending upon local morphodynamic processes. Saltmarshes of some mesotidal and high tide range estuaries (e.g., Tagus estuary, Portugal) are susceptible to sealevel rise only in a worst-case scenario. Similarly, wetlands with high sediment inputs in the south-east United States would remain stable relative to sea level unless the rate of sea-level rise accelerates to nearly four times its current rate (Morris et al., 2002). Yet, even sediment inputs from frequently recurring hurricanes cannot compensate for subsidence effects combined with predicted accelerations in sea-level rise in rapidly subsiding marshes of the Mississippi River delta (Rybczyk and Cahoon, 2002).
Mangrove forests dominate intertidal subtropical and tropical coastlines between 25ºN and 25ºS latitude. Mangrove communities are likely to show a blend of positive responses to climate change, such as enhanced growth resulting from higher levels of CO2 and temperature, as well as negative impacts, such as increased saline intrusion and erosion, largely depending on site-specific factors (Saenger, 2002). The response of coastal forested wetlands to climate change has not received the detailed research and modelling that has been directed towards the saltmarsh coasts of North America (Morris et al., 2002; Reed, 2002; Rybczyk and Cahoon, 2002) and north-west Europe (Allen, 2000, 2003). Nevertheless, it seems highly likely that similar principles are in operation and that the sedimentary response of the shoreline is a function of both the availability of sediment (Walsh and Nittrouer, 2004) and the ability of the organic production by mangroves themselves to fill accommodation space provided by sea-level rise (Simas et al., 2001).Mangroves are able to produce rootmaterial that builds up the substrate beneath them(Middleton andMcKee, 2001; Jennerjahn and Ittekkot, 2002), but collapse of peat occurs rapidly in the absence of new root growth, as observed after Hurricane Mitch (Cahoon et al., 2003) and after lightning strikes (Sherman et al., 2000). Groundwater levels play an important role in the elevation of mangrove soils by processes affecting soil shrink and swell. Hence, the influence of hydrology should be considered when evaluating the effect of disturbances, sea-level rise and water management decisions on mangrove systems (Whelan et al., 2005). A global assessment of mangrove accretion rates by Saenger (2002) indicates that vertical accretion is variable but commonly approaches 5 mm/yr. However, many mangrove shorelines are subsiding and thus experiencing a more rapid relative sea-level rise (Cahoon et al., 2003).
A landward migration of mangroves into adjacent wetland communities has been recorded in the Florida Everglades during the past 50 years (Ross et al., 2000), apparently responding to sea-level rise over that period. Mangroves have extended landward into saltmarsh over the past five decades throughout south-east Australia, but the influence of sea-level rise in this region is considered minor compared to that of human disturbance (Saintilan and Williams, 1999) and land surface subsidence (Rogers et al., 2005, 2006). Rapid expansion of tidal creeks has been observed in northern Australia (Finlayson and Eliot, 2001; Hughes, 2003). Sea-level rise and salt water intrusion have been identified as a causal factor in the decline of coastal bald cypress (Taxodium disticum) forests in Louisiana (Krauss et al., 2000; Melillo et al., 2000) and die off of cabbage palm (Sabal palmetto) forests in coastal Florida (Williams et al., 1999, 2003).
On balance, coastal wetlands will decline with rising sea levels and other climate and human pressures (reduced sediment inputs, coastal squeeze constraints on landward migration, etc.) will tend to exacerbate these losses. However, the processes shaping these environments are complex and while our understanding has improved significantly over the last 10 years, it remains far from complete. Continued work on the basic science and its application to future prognosis at local, regional and global scales remains a priority (Cahoon et al., 2006; McFadden et al., 2007a).
Sea grasses appear to be declining around many coasts due to human impacts, and this is expected to accelerate if climate change alters environmental conditions in coastal waters (Duarte, 2002). Changes in salinity and temperature and increased sea level, atmospheric CO2, storm activity and ultraviolet irradiance alter sea grass distribution, productivity and community composition (Short and Neckles, 1999). Increases in the amount of dissolved CO2 and, for some species, HCO3 present in aquatic environments, will lead to higher rates of photosynthesis in submerged aquatic vegetation, similar to the effects of CO2 enrichment on most terrestrial plants, if nutrient availability or other limiting factors do not offset the potential for enhanced productivity. Increases in growth and biomass with elevated CO2 have been observed for the sea grass Z. marina (Zimmerman et al., 1997). Algae growth in lagoons and estuaries may also respond positively to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), though marine macroalgae do not appear to be limited by DIC levels (Beer and Koch, 1996). An increase in epiphytic or suspended algae would decrease light available to submerged aquatic vegetation in estuarine and lagoonal systems.
6.4.1.5 Coral reefs
Reef-building corals are under stress on many coastlines (see Chapter 1, Section 1.3.4.1). Reefs have deteriorated as a result of a combination of anthropogenic impacts such as overfishing and pollution fromadjacent landmasses (Pandolfi et al., 2003;Graham et al., 2006), together with an increased frequency and severity of bleaching associated with climate change (Box 6.1). The relative significance of these stresses varies from site to site. Coral mortality on Caribbean reefs is generally related to recent disease outbreaks, variations in herbivory5, and hurricanes (Gardner et al., 2003; McWilliams et al., 2005), whereas Pacific reefs have been particularly impacted by episodes of coral bleaching caused by thermal stress anomalies especially during recent El Niño events (Hughes et al., 2003), as well as non-climate stresses.
Mass coral bleaching events are clearly correlated with rises of SST of short duration above summer maxima (Douglas, 2003; Lesser, 2004; McWilliams et al., 2005). Particularly extensive bleaching was recorded across the Indian Ocean region associated with extreme El Niño conditions in 1998 (Box 6.1 and Chapter 11, Section 11.6: Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef case study). Many reefs appear to have experienced similar SST conditions earlier in the 20th century and it is unclear how extensive bleaching was before widespread reporting post-1980 (Barton and Casey, 2005). There is limited ecological and genetic evidence for adaptation of corals to warmer conditions (Boxes 4.4 and 6.1). It is very likely that projected future increases in SST of about 1 to 3°C (Section 6.3.2) will result in more frequent bleaching events and widespread mortality, if there is not thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals and their symbionts (Sheppard, 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg, 2004). The ability of coral reef ecosystems to withstand the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of degradation from other anthropogenic pressures and the frequency of future bleaching events (Donner et al., 2005).
In addition to coral bleaching, there are other threats to reefs associated with climate change (Kleypas and Langdon, 2002). Increased concentrations of CO2 in seawater will lead to ocean acidification (Section 6.3.2), affecting aragonite saturation state (Meehl et al., 2007) and reducing calcification rates of calcifying organisms such as corals (LeClerq et al., 2002; Guinotte et al., 2003; Chapter 4, Box 4.4). Cores from long-lived massive corals indicate pastminor variations in calcification (Lough and Barnes, 2000), but disintegration of degraded reefs following bleaching or reduced calcification may result in increased wave energy across reef flats with potential for shoreline erosion (Sheppard et al., 2005). Relative sea-level rise appears unlikely to threaten reefs in the next few decades; coral reefs have been shown to keep pace with rapid postglacial sea-level rise when not subjected to environmental or anthropogenic stresses (Hallock, 2005).Aslight rise in sea level is likely to result in submergence of some Indo- Pacific reef flats and recolonisation by corals, as these intertidal surfaces, presently emerged at low tide, become suitable for coral growth (Buddemeier et al., 2004).
Many reefs are affected by tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons); impacts range fromminor breakage of fragile corals to destruction of the majority of corals on a reef and deposition of debris as coarse storm ridges. Such storms represent major perturbations, affecting species composition and abundance, from which reef ecosystems require time to recover. The sequence of ridges deposited on the reef top can provide a record of past storm history (Hayne and Chappell, 2001); for the northern Great Barrier Reef no change in frequency of extremely large cyclones has been detected over the past 5000 years (Nott and Hayne, 2001). An intensification of tropical storms (Section 6.3.2) could have devastating consequences on the reefs themselves, as well as for the inhabitants of many low-lying islands (Sections 6.4.2 and 16.3.1.3). There is limited evidence that global warming may result in an increase of coral range; for example, extension of branching Acropora poleward has been recorded in Florida, despite an almost Caribbean-wide trend for reef deterioration (Precht and Aronson, 2004), but there are several constraints, including low genetic diversity and the limited suitable substrate at the latitudinal limits to reef growth (Riegl, 2003; Ayre and Hughes, 2004;Woodroffe et al., 2005).
The fate of the small reef islands on the rim of atolls is of special concern. Small reef islands in the Indo-Pacific formed over recent millennia during a period when regional sea level fell (Woodroffe andMorrison, 2001; Dickinson, 2004). However, the response of these islands to future sea-level rise remains uncertain, and is addressed in greater detail in Chapter 16, Section 16.4.2. It will be important to identify critical thresholds of change beyond which there may be collapse of ecological and social systems on atolls. There are limited data, little local expertise to assess the dangers, and a low level of economic activity to cover the costs of adaptation for atolls in countries such as the Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu (Barnett andAdger, 2003; Chapter 16, Box 16.6).
6.4.2 Consequences for human society
Since the TAR, global and regional studies on the impacts of climate change are increasingly available, but few distinguish the socio-economic implications for the coastal zone (see also Section 6.5).Within these limits, Table 6.4 provides a qualitative overview of climate-related changes on the various socioeconomic sectors of the coastal zone discussed in this section.
The socio-economic impacts in Table 6.4 are generally a product of the physical changes outlined in Table 6.2. For instance, extensive low-lying (often deltaic) areas, e.g., the Netherlands, Guyana and Bangladesh (Box 6.3), and oceanic islands are especially threatened by a rising sea level and all its resulting impacts, whereas coral reef systems and polar regions are already affected by rising temperatures (Sections 6.2.5 and 6.4.1). Socio-economic impacts are also influenced by the magnitude and frequency of existing processes and extreme events, e.g., the densely populated coasts of East, South and South-east Asia are already exposed to frequent cyclones, and this will compound the impacts of other climate changes (see Chapter 10). Coastal ecosystems are particularly at risk from climate change (CBD, 2003; Section 6.4.1), with serious implications for the services that they provide to human society (see Section 6.2.2; Box 6.4 and Chapter 4, Section 4.4.9).
Table 6.4. Summary of climate-related impacts on socio-economic sectors in coastal zones.
|
|
Climate-related impacts (and their climate drivers in Figure 6.1)
|
| Coastal socio-economic sector
|
Temperature rise (air and seawater)
|
Extreme events (storms, waves)
|
Floods (sea level, runoff)
|
Rising water tables
(sea level)
|
Erosion (sea level, storms, waves)
|
Salt water intrusion (sea level, runoff)
|
Biological effects (all climate drivers)
|
| Freshwater resources
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
–
|
X
|
x
|
| Agriculture and forestry
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
–
|
X
|
x
|
| Fisheries and aquaculture
|
X
|
X
|
x
|
–
|
x
|
X
|
X
|
| Health
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
x
|
–
|
X
|
X
|
| Recreation and tourism
|
X
|
X
|
x
|
–
|
X
|
–
|
X
|
| Biodiversity
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
| Settlements/ infrastructure
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
–
|
| X = strong; x= weak; – = negligible or not established.
|
Since the TAR, some important observations on the impacts and consequences of climate change on human society at coasts have emerged. First, significant regional differences in climate change and local variability of the coast, including human development patterns, result in variable impacts and adjustments along the coast, with implications for adaptation responses (Section 6.6). Second, human vulnerability to sea-level rise and climate change is strongly influenced by the characteristics of socio-economic development (Section 6.6.3). There are large differences in coastal impacts when comparing the different SRES worlds which cannot be attributed solely to the magnitude of climate change (Nicholls and Lowe, 2006; Nicholls and Tol, 2006). Third, although the future magnitude of sea-level rise will be reduced by mitigation, the long timescales of ocean response ([6.6]) mean that it is unclear what coastal impacts are avoided and what impacts are simply delayed by the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere (Nicholls and Lowe, 2006). Fourth, vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, including the higher socio-economic burden imposed by present climate-related hazards and disasters, is very likely to be greater on coastal communities of developing countries than in developed countries due to inequalities in adaptive capacity (Defra, 2004; Section 6.5). For example, one quarter of Africa’s population is located in resource-rich coastal zones and a high proportion of GDP is exposed to climate-influenced coastal risks (Nyong and Niang-Diop, 2006; Chapter 9). In Guyana, 90%of its population and important economic activities are located within the coastal zone and are threatened by sea-level rise and climate change (Khan, 2001). Low-lying densely populated areas in India, China and Bangladesh (see Chapter 10) and other deltaic areas are highly exposed, as are the economies of small islands (see Chapter 16).
6.4.2.1 Freshwater resources
The direct influences of sea-level rise on freshwater resources come principally from seawater intrusion into surface waters and coastal aquifers, further encroachment of saltwater into estuaries and coastal river systems, more extensive coastal inundation and higher levels of sea flooding, increases in the landward reach of sea waves and storm surges, and new or accelerated coastal erosion (Hay and Mimura, 2005). Although the coast contains a substantial proportion of the world’s population, it has a much smaller proportion of the global renewable water supply, and the coastal population is growing faster than elsewhere, exacerbating this imbalance (see Section 6.2.2 and Chapter 3, Section 3.2).
Many coastal aquifers, especially shallow ones, experience saltwater intrusion caused by natural and human-induced factors, and this is exacerbated by sea-level rise (Essink, 2001). The scale of saltwater intrusion is dependent on aquifer dimensions, geological factors, groundwater withdrawals, surface water recharge, submarine groundwater discharges and precipitation. Therefore, coastal areas experiencing increases in precipitation and run-off due to climate change (Section 6.3.2), including floods, may benefit from groundwater recharge, especially on some arid coasts (Khiyami et al., 2005). Salinisation of surface waters in estuaries is also promoted by a rising sea level, e.g., Bay of Bengal (Allison et al., 2003).
Globally, freshwater supply problems due to climate change are most likely in developing countries with a high proportion of coastal lowland, arid and semi-arid coasts, coastal megacities particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and small island states, reflecting both natural and socio-economic factors that enhance the levels of risks (Alcamo and Henrichs, 2002; Ragab and Prudhomme, 2002). Identifying future coastal areas with stressed freshwater resources is difficult, particularly where there are strong seasonal demands, poor or no metering, and theft of water (Hall, 2003). Overall efficiency of water use is an important consideration, particularly where agriculture is a large consumer, e.g., the Nile delta (see Chapter 9, Box 9.2) and Asian megadeltas.
Based on the SRES emissions scenarios, it is estimated that the increase in water stress would have a significant impact by the 2050s, when the different SRES population scenarios have a clear effect (Arnell, 2004). But, regardless of the scenarios applied, critical regions with a higher sensitivity to water stresses, arising from either increases in water withdrawal or decreases in water available, have been identified in coastal regions that include parts of the western coasts of Latin America and the Algerian coast (Alcamo and Henrichs, 2002).
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Box 6.4. Hurricane Katrina and coastal ecosystem services in the Mississippi delta
Whereas an individual hurricane event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve to illustrate the consequences for ecosystem services if the intensity and/or frequency of such events were to increase in the future. One result of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in coastal Louisiana on 29th August 2005, was the loss of 388 km2 of coastal wetlands, levees and islands that flank New Orleans in theMississippi River deltaic plain (Barras, 2006) (Figure 6.7). (Hurricane Rita, which struck in September 2005, had relatively minor effects on this part of the Louisiana coast which are included in this estimate.) The Chandeleur Islands, which lie south-east of the city, were reduced to roughly half of their former extent as a direct result of Hurricane Katrina. Collectively, these natural systems serve as the first line of defence against storm surge in this highly populated region. While some habitat recovery is expected, it is likely to be minimal compared to the scale of the losses. The Chandeleur Islands serve as an important wintering ground for migratory waterfowl and neo-tropical birds; a large population of North American redhead ducks, for example, feed on the rhizomes of sheltered sea grasses leeward of the Chandeleur Islands (Michot, 2000). Historically the region has ranked second only to Alaska in U.S. commercial fisheries production, and this high productivity has been attributed to the extent of coastal marshes and sheltered estuaries of the Mississippi River delta. Over 1800 people lost their lives (Graumann et al., 2005) during Hurricane Katrina and the economic losses totalledmore than US$100 billion (NOAA, 2007). Roughly 300,000 homes and over 1,000 historical and cultural sites were destroyed along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts (the loss of oil production and refinery capacity helped to raise global oil prices in the short term). Post-Katrina, some major changes to the delta’smanagement are being advocated, most notably abandonment of the “bird-foot delta” where artificial levees channel valuable sediments into deep water (EFGC, 2006; NRC, 2006). The aim is to restore large-scale delta building processes and hence sustain the ecosystem services in the long term. Hurricane Katrina is further discussed in Box 7.4 (Chapter 7) and Chapter 14.
 Figure 6.7. The Mississippi delta, including the Chandeleur Islands. Areas in red were converted to open water during the hurricane. Yellow lines on index map of Louisiana show tracks of Hurricane Katrina on right and Hurricane Rita on left. (Figure source: U.S. Geological Survey, modified from Barras, 2006.) |
6.4.2.2 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Climate change is expected to have impacts on agriculture and, to a lesser extent, on forestry, although non-climatic factors, such as technological development and management practices can be more significant (Easterling, 2003). Climate variability and change also impacts fisheries in coastal and estuarine waters (Daufresne et al., 2003; Genner et al., 2004), although nonclimatic factors, such as overfishing and habitat loss and degradation, are already responsible for reducing fish stocks. Globally an increased agricultural production potential due to climate change and CO2 fertilisation should in principle add to food security, but the impacts on the coastal areas may differ regionally and locally. For example, in Europe, climate-related increases in crop yields are expected in the north, while the largest reductions are expected in the Mediterranean, the southwest Balkans and southern Russia (Maracchi et al., 2005).
Temperature increases can shorten growing cycles, e.g., those of cotton and mango on the north coast of Peru during the El Niño (see Chapter 13, Section 13.2.2). More frequent extreme climate events during specific crop development stages, together with higher rainfall intensity and longer dry spells, may impact negatively on crop yields (Olesen et al., 2006). Cyclone landfalls causing floods and destruction have negative impacts on coastal areas, e.g., on coconuts in India (see Chapter 5, Section 5.4.4), or on sugar cane and bananas in Queensland (Cyclone Larry in March 2006). Rising sea level has negative impacts on coastal agriculture. Detailed modelling of inundation implies significant changes to the number of rice crops possible in theMekong delta under 20-40 cm of relative sea-level rise (Wassmann et al., 2004). Rising sea level potentially threatens inundation and soil salinisation of palm oil and coconuts in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire (see Chapter 9, Section 9.4.6) and mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts in Kenya (Republic of Kenya, 2002).
Coastal forestry is little studied, but forests are easily affected by climatic perturbations, and severe storms can cause extensive losses, e.g., Hurricane Katrina. Plantation forests (mainly P. radiata) on the east coast of North Island, New Zealand, are likely to experience growth reductions under projected rainfall decreases (Ministry for the Environment, 2001). Increasing salinity and greater frequency of flooding due to sea-level rise reduces the ability of trees to generate, including mangroves which will also experience other changes (Section 6.4.1.4) (IUCN, 2003).
Future climate change impacts will be greater on coastal than on pelagic species, and for temperate endemics than for tropical species (see Chapter 11, Section 11.4.6). For Europe, regional climate warming has influenced northerly migration of fish species, e.g., sardines and anchovies in the North Sea (Brander et al., 2003a). The biotic communities and productivity of coastal lagoons may experience a variety of changes, depending on the changes in wetland area, freshwater flows and salt intrusion which affect the species. Intensification of ENSO events and increases in SST, wind stress, hypoxia (shortage of oxygen) and the deepening of the thermocline will reduce spawning areas and catches of anchovy off Peru (see Chapter 13, Table 13.7). There is also concern that climate change may affect the abundance and distribution of pathogens and HABs, with implications for aquatic organisms and human health (Section 6.4.2.4). The linkage between temperature changes and HABs is still not robust, and the extent to which coastal eutrophication will be affected by future climate variability will vary with local physical environmental conditions and current eutrophication status (Justic et al., 2005). Ocean acidification is a concern, but impacts are uncertain (Royal Society, 2005). Climate change also has implications for mariculture but again these are not well understood.
6.4.2.3 Human settlements, infrastructure and migration
Climate change and sea-level rise affect coastal settlements and infrastructure in several ways (Table 6.4). Sea-level rise raises extreme water levels with possible increases in storm intensity portending additional climate impacts on many coastal areas (Box 6.2), while saltwater intrusion may threaten water supplies. The degradation of natural coastal systems due to climate change, such as wetlands, beaches and barrier islands (Section 6.4.1.1), removes the natural defences of coastal communities against extreme water levels during storms (Box 6.5). Rapid population growth, urban sprawl, growing demand for waterfront properties, and coastal resort development have additional deleterious effects on protective coastal ecosystems.
Much of the coast of many European and East Asian countries have defences against flooding and erosion, e.g., the Netherlands (Jonkman et al., 2005) and Japan (Chapter 10, Section 10.5.3), reflecting a strong tradition of coastal defence. In particular, many coastal cities are heavily dependent upon artificial coastal defences, e.g., Tokyo, Shanghai, Hamburg, Rotterdam and London. These urban systems are vulnerable to low-probability extreme events above defence standards and to systemic failures (domino effects), e.g., the ports, roads and railways along the US Gulf and Atlantic coasts are especially vulnerable to coastal flooding (see Chapter 14, Section 14.2.6). Where these cities are subsiding, there are additional risks of extreme water levels overtopping flood defences, e.g., New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina (Box 6.4). Climate change and sea-level rise will exacerbate flood risk. Hence, many coastal cities require upgraded design criteria for flood embankments and barrages (e.g., the Thames barrier in London, the Delta works in the Netherlands, Shanghai’s defences, and planned protection for Venice) (Fletcher and Spencer, 2005) (see Box 6.2 and Section 6.6).
There is now a better understanding of flooding as a natural hazard, and how climate change and other factors are likely to influence coastal flooding in the future (Hunt, 2002). However, the prediction of precise locations for increased flood risk resulting from climate change is difficult, as flood risk dynamics have multiple social, technical and environmental drivers (Few et al., 2004b). The population exposed to flooding by storm surges will increase over the 21st century (Table 6.5). Asia dominates the global exposure with its large coastal population: Bangladesh, China, Japan, Vietnam and Thailand having serious coastal flooding problems (see Section 6.6.2; Chapter 10, Section 10.4.3.1; Mimura, 2001). Africa is also likely to see a substantially increased exposure, with East Africa (e.g., Mozambique) having particular problems due to the combination of tropical storm landfalls and large projected population growth in addition to sea-level rise (Nicholls, 2006).
Table 6.6 shows estimates of oastal flooding due to storm surge, taking into account one adaptation assumption. Asia and Africa experience the largest impacts: without sea-level rise, coastal flooding is projected to diminish as a problem under the SRES scenarios while, with sea-level rise, the coastal flood problem is growing by the 2080s, most especially under the A2 scenario. Increased stormintensitywould exacerbate these impacts, aswould larger rises in sea level, including due to human-induced subsidence (Nicholls, 2004). Figure 6.8 shows the numbers of people flooded in the 2080s as a function of sea-level rise, and variable assumptions on adaptation. Flood impacts vary with sea-level rise scenario, socio-economic situation and adaptation assumptions. Assuming that there will be no defence upgrade has a dramatic impact on the result, withmore than 100million people flooded per year above a 40 cm rise for all SRES scenarios. Upgraded defences reduce the impacts substantially: the greater the upgrade the lower the impacts. This stresses the importance of understanding the effectiveness and timing of adaptation (Section 6.6).
 Figure 6.8. Estimates of people flooded in coastal areas due to sealevel rise, SRES socio-economic scenario and protection response in the 2080s (following Nicholls and Lowe, 2006; Nicholls and Tol, 2006) Table 6.5. Estimates of the population (in millions) of the coastal flood plain* in 1990 and the 2080s (following Nicholls, 2004). Assumes uniform population growth; net coastward migration could substantially increase these numbers.
| Region
|
1990
(baseline)
|
SRES scenarios (and sea-level rise scenario in metres)
|
A1FI
(0.34)
|
A2
(0.28)
|
B1
(0.22)
|
B2
(0.25)
|
| Australia
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
| Europe
|
25
|
30
|
35
|
29
|
27
|
| Asia
|
132
|
185
|
376
|
180
|
247
|
North
America
|
12
|
23
|
28
|
22
|
18
|
Latin
America
|
9
|
17
|
35
|
16
|
20
|
| Africa
|
19
|
58
|
86
|
56
|
86
|
| Global
|
197
|
313
|
561
|
304
|
399
|
| * Area below the 1 in 1,000 year flood level.
|
6.4.2.4 Human health
Coastal communities, particularly in low income countries, are vulnerable to a range of health effects due to climate variability and long-term climate change, particularly extreme weather and climate events (such as cyclones, floods and droughts) as summarised in Table 6.7.
The potential impacts of climate change on populations in coastal regions will be determined by the future health status of the population, its capacity to cope with climate hazards and control infectious diseases, and other public health measures. Coastal communities that rely on marine resources for food, in terms of both supply and maintaining food quality (food safety), are vulnerable to climate-related impacts, in both health and economic terms. Marine ecological processes linked to temperature changes also play a role in determining human health risks, such as from cholera, and other enteric pathogens (Vibrio parahaemolyticus), HABs, and shellfish and reef fish poisoning (Pascual et al., 2002; Hunter, 2003; Lipp et al., 2004; Peperzak, 2005; McLaughlin et al., 2006).
Table 6.6. Estimates of the average annual number of coastal flood victims (in millions) due to sea-level rise (following Nicholls, 2004). Assumes no change in storm intensity and evolving protection**. Range reflects population growth as reported in Table 6.1. Base= baseline without sea-level rise; aSLR = additional impacts due to sea-level rise.
Region
|
Case
|
Timelines, SRES socio-economic (and sea-level rise scenarios in metres)
|
| 2020s
|
2050s
|
2080s
|
| A1FI (0.05)
|
A2 (0.05)
|
B1 (0.05)
|
B2 (0.06)
|
A1FI (0.16)
|
A2 (0.14)
|
B1 (0.13)
|
B2 (0.14)
|
A1FI (0.34)
|
A2 (0.28)
|
B1 (0.22)
|
B2 (0.25)
|
| Australia
|
Base
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Europe
|
Base
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Asia
|
Base
|
9/12
|
14/20
|
12/17
|
9/13
|
0
|
15/24
|
2
|
1/2
|
0
|
11/18
|
0
|
0/1
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1/2
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
4/7
|
0
|
0/1
|
| North America
|
Base
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Latin America
|
Base
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0/1
|
0
|
0
|
| Africa
|
Base
|
1
|
2/4
|
1
|
3/4
|
0
|
1/2
|
0
|
1/2
|
0
|
0/1
|
0
|
0
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0/1
|
2/5
|
4/7
|
1
|
2/4
|
| Global Total
|
Base
|
10/14
|
17/24
|
13/18
|
12/17
|
0/1
|
16/26
|
2
|
3/4
|
0
|
11/19
|
0
|
1
|
| aSLR
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2/3
|
0
|
0/1
|
6/10
|
9/15
|
2/3
|
3/5
|
| ** Protection standards improve as GDP per capita increases, but there is no additional adaptation for sea-level rise. Figure 6.8. Estimates of people flooded in coastal areas due to sea level rise, SRES socio-economic scenario and protection response in the 2080s (following Nicholls and Lowe, 2006; Nicholls and Tol, 2006)
|
Table 6.7. Health effects of climate change and sea-level rise in coastal areas.
|
Exposure/hazard
|
Health outcome
|
Sources
|
| (Catastrophic) flooding
|
Deaths (drowning, other causes), injuries, infectious disease (respiratory, intestinal, skin), mental health disorders, impacts from interruption of health services and population displacement.
|
Sections 6.4.2, 6.5.2 and 8.2.2; Box 6.4 (Few and Matthies,
2006)
|
Impairment of food quality and/or food supplies (loss of crop land, decreased fisheries productivity).
Climate change effects on HABs.
|
Food safety: marine bacteria proliferation, shellfish poisoning, ciguatera. Malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies.
|
Sections 6.4.1.3 6.4.2.2 and 8.2.4
|
| Reduced water quality and/or access to potable water supplies due to salinisation, flooding or drought.
|
Diarrhoeal diseases (giardia, cholera), and hepatitis, enteric fevers. Water-washed infections.
|
Sections 6.4.2.1, 7.5
and 8.2.5
|
Change in transmission intensity or distribution of
vector-borne disease. Changes in vector abundance.
|
Changes in malaria, and other mosquito-borne infections (some Anopheles vectors breed in brackish water).
|
Sections 8.2.8 and 16.4.5
|
Effects on livelihoods, population movement, and
potential “environmental refugees”.
|
Health effects are less well described. Large-scale rapid population movement would have severe health implications.
|
Section 6.4.2.3 and
limited health
literature.
|
Convincing evidence of the impacts of observed climate change on coastal disease patterns is absent (Kovats and Haines, 2005). There is an association between ENSO and cholera risk in Bangladesh (Pascual et al., 2002). Rainfall changes associated with ENSO are known to increase the risk of malaria epidemics in coastal regions of Venezuela and Colombia (Kovats et al., 2003). The projection of health impacts of climate change is still difficult and uncertain (Ebi and Gamble, 2005; Kovats et al., 2005), and socio-economic factors may be more critical than climate. There are also complex relationships between ecosystems and human well-being, and the future coastal ecosystem changes discussed in Section 6.4.1 may affect human health (cf. Butler et al., 2005).
6.4.2.5 Biodiversity
The distribution, production, and many other aspects of species and biodiversity in coastal ecosystems are highly sensitive to variations in weather and climate (Section 6.4.1), affecting the distribution and abundance of the plant and animal species that depend on each coastal system type. Human development patterns also have an important influence on biodiversity among coastal system types. Mangroves, for example, support rich ecological communities of fish and crustaceans, are a source of energy for coastal food chains, and export carbon in the form of plant and animal detritus, stimulating estuarine and nearshore productivity (Jennerjahn and Ittekkot, 2002). Large-scale conversions of coastal mangrove forests to shrimp aquaculture have occurred during the past three decades along the coastlines of Vietnam (Binh et al., 1997), Bangladesh and India (Zweig, 1998), Hong Kong (Tam and Wong, 2002), the Philippines (Spalding et al., 1997), Mexico (Contreras-Espinosa and Warner, 2004), Thailand (Furakawa and Baba, 2001) and Malaysia (Ong, 2001). The additional stressors associated with climate change could lead to further declines in mangroves forests and their biodiversity.
Several recent studies have revealed that climate change is already impacting biodiversity in some coastal systems. Longterm monitoring of the occurrence and distribution of a series of intertidal and shallow water organisms in south-west Britain has shown several patterns of change, particularly in the case of barnacles, which correlate broadly with changes in temperature over the several decades of record (Hawkins et al., 2003; Mieszkowska et al., 2006). It is clear that responses of intertidal and shallow marine organisms to climate change are more complex than simply latitudinal shifts related to temperature increase, with complex biotic interactions superimposed on the abiotic (Harley et al., 2006; Helmuth et al., 2006). Examples include the northward range extension of a marine snail in California (Zacherl et al., 2003) and the reappearance of the blue mussel in Svalbard (Berge et al., 2005).
Patterns of overwintering of migratory birds on the British coast appear to have changed in response to temperature rise (Rehfisch et al., 2004), and it has been suggested that changes in invertebrate distribution might subsequently influence the distribution of ducks and wading birds (Kendall et al., 2004). However, as detailed studies of redshank have shown, the factors controlling distribution are complex and in many cases are influenced by human activities (Norris et al., 2004). Piersma and Lindstrom(2004) review changes in bird distribution but conclude that none can be convincingly attributed to climate change. Loss of birds from some estuaries appears to be the result of coastal squeeze and relative sea-level rise (Hughes, 2004; Knogge et al., 2004).Areport by the United Nations Framework Convention on Biodiversity (CBD, 2006) presents guidance for incorporating biodiversity considerations in climate change adaptation strategies, with examples from several coastal regions.
6.4.2.6 Recreation and tourism
Climate change has major potential impacts on coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on ‘sun, sea and sand’. Globally, travel to sunny and warm coastal destinations is the major factor for tourists travelling from Northern Europe to the Mediterranean (16% of world’s tourists) and from North America to the Caribbean (1%of world’s tourists) (WTO, 2003). By 2020, the total number of international tourists is expected to exceed 1.5 billion (WTO, undated).
Climate change may influence tourism directly via the decision-making process by influencing tourists to choose different destinations; and indirectly as a result of sea-level rise and resulting coastal erosion (Agnew and Viner, 2001). The preferences for climates at tourist destinations also differ among age and income groups (Lise and Tol, 2002), suggesting differential responses. Increased awareness of interactions between ozone depletion and climate change and the subsequent impact on the exposure of human skin to ultraviolet light is another factor influencing tourists’ travel choice (Diffey, 2004). In general, air temperature rise is most important to tourism, except where factors such as sea-level rise promote beach degradation and viable adaptation options (e.g., nourishment or recycling) are not available (Bigano et al., 2005). Other likely impacts of climate change on coastal tourismare due to coral reef degradation (Box 6.1; Section 6.4.1.5) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2000). Temperature and rainfall pattern changesmay impact water quality in coastal areas and this may lead to more beach closures.
Climate change is likely to affect international tourist flows prior to travel, en route, and at the destination (Becken and Hay, undated). As tourism is still a growth industry, the changes in tourist numbers induced by climate change are likely to be much smaller than those resulting frompopulation and economic growth (Bigano et al., 2005; Hamilton et al., 2005; Table 6.2). Higher temperatures are likely to change summer destination preferences, especially for Europe: summer heatwaves in the Mediterranean may lead to a shift in tourism to spring and autumn (Madisson, 2001)with growth in summer tourismaround the Baltic andNorth Seas (see Chapter 12, Section 12.4.9).Although newclimate niches are emerging, the empirical data do not suggest reduced competitiveness of the sun, sea and sand destinations, as they are able to restructure to meet tourists’demands (Aguiló et al., 2005). Within the Caribbean, the rapidly growing cruise industry is not vulnerable to sea-level rise, unlike coastal resorts. On high-risk (e.g., hurricane-prone) coasts, insurance costs for tourism could increase substantially or insurancemay no longer be available. This exacerbates the impacts of extreme events or restricts new tourism in high-risk regions (Scott et al., 2005), e.g., four hurricanes in 2004 dealt a heavy toll in infrastructure damage and lost business in Florida’s tourism industry (see Chapter 14, Section 14.2.7).
6.4.3 Key vulnerabilities and hotspots
A comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change must consider at least three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Section 6.6). Significant regional differences in present climate and expected climate change give rise to different exposure among human populations and natural systems to climate stimuli (IPCC, 2001). The previous sections of this chapter broadly characterise the sensitivity and natural adaptive capacity (or resilience) of several major classes of coastal environments to changes in climate and sea-level rise. Differences in geological, oceanographic and biological processes can also lead to substantially different impacts on a single coastal system at different locations. Some global patterns and hotspots of vulnerability are evident, however, and deltas/estuaries (especially populated megadeltas), coral reefs (especially atolls), and icedominated coasts appearmost vulnerable to either climate change or associated sea-level rise and changes. Low-lying coastal wetlands, small islands, sand and gravel beaches and soft rock cliffs may also experience significant changes.
An acceleration of sea-level rise would directly increase the vulnerability of all of the above systems, but sea-level rise will not occur uniformly around the world (Section 6.3.2). Variability of storms and waves, as well as sediment supply and the ability to migrate landward, also influence the vulnerability of many of these coastal system types. Hence, there is an important element of local to regional variation among coastal systemtypes thatmust be considered when conducting site-specific vulnerability assessments.
Our understanding of human adaptive capacity is less developed than our understanding of responses by natural systems, which limits the degree to which we can quantify societal vulnerability in the world’s coastal regions. Nonetheless, several key aspects of human vulnerability have emerged. It is also apparent that multiple and concomitant non-climate stresses will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on most natural coastal systems, leading to much larger and detrimental changes in the 21st century than those of the 20th century. Table 6.8 summarises some of the key hotspots of vulnerability that often arise from the combination of natural and societal factors. Note that some examples such as atolls and small islands and deltas/megadeltas recur, stressing their high vulnerability.
While physical exposure is an important aspect of the vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems to both present and future climate variability and change, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Societal vulnerability is largely dependent upon development status (Yohe and Tol, 2002). Developing nations may have the societal will to relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones but, without the necessary financial resources, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Looking to the scenarios, the A2 SRES world often appears most vulnerable to climate change in coastal areas, again reflecting socioeconomic controls in addition to the magnitude of climate change (Nicholls, 2004; Nicholls and Tol, 2006). Hence, development is not only a key consideration in evaluating greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, but is also fundamental in assessing adaptive capacity because greater access to wealth and technology generally increases adaptive capacity, while poverty limits adaptation options (Yohe and Tol, 2002).Alack of risk awareness or institutional capacity can also have an important influence on human vulnerability, as experienced in the United States during Hurricane Katrina.
6.5 Costs and other socio-economic aspects
The costs, benefits and other socio-economic consequences of climate variability and change for coastal and low-lying areas have been determined for many aspects, including heat stress and changes in plant and animal metabolism (see Chapter 4, Section 4.2 and Box 4.4), disease (see Chapter 8, Section 8.5), water supply (see Chapter 3, Section 3.5), and coastal forests, agriculture and aquaculture (see Chapter 5, Section 5.6). The following section focuses on evaluating the socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise, storm damage and coastal erosion.
Table 6.8. Key hotspots of societal vulnerability in coastal zones.
| Controlling factors
|
Examples from this Chapter
|
| Coastal areas where there are substantial barriers to adaptation (economic, institutional, environmental, technical, etc.)
|
Venice, Asian megadeltas, atolls and small islands, New Orleans
|
| Coastal areas subject to multiple natural and human-induced stresses, such as subsidence or declining natural defences
|
Mississippi, Nile and Asian megadeltas, the Netherlands, Mediterranean, Maldives
|
| Coastal areas already experiencing adverse effects of temperature rise
|
Coral reefs, Arctic coasts (USA, Canada, Russia), Antarctic peninsula
|
| Coastal areas with significant flood-plain populations that are exposed to significant storm surge hazards
|
Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean, Rio de la Plata/Parana delta, North Sea
|
| Coastal areas where freshwater resources are likely to be reduced by climate change
|
W. Africa, W. Australia, atolls and small islands
|
| Coastal areas with tourist-based economies where major adverse effects on tourism are likely
|
Caribbean, Mediterranean, Florida, Thailand, Maldives
|
| Highly sensitive coastal systems where the scope for inland migration is limited
|
Many developed estuarine coasts, low small islands, Bangladesh
|
6.5.1 Methods and tools for characterising socioeconomic consequences
Since the TAR there has been further progress in moving from classical cost-benefit analysis to assessments that integrate monetary, social and natural science criteria. For example, Hughes et al. (2005) report the emergence of a complex systems approach for sustaining and repairing marine ecosystems. This links ecological resilience to governance structures, economics and society. Such developments are in response to the growing recognition of the intricate linkages between physical coastal processes, the diverse coastal ecosystems, and resources at risk from climate change, the many ecological functions they serve and services they provide, and the variety of human amenities and activities that depend on them. Thus a more complete picture of climate change impacts emerges if assessments take into account the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision makers and community responses to climate change (Moser, 2000, 2005). Increasingly, IntegratedAssessment provides an analytical framework, and an interdisciplinary learning and engagement process for experts, decisionmakers and stakeholders (Turner, 2001). Evaluations of societal and other consequences combine impact-benefit/cost-effectiveness analytical methods with scenario analysis. For example, a recent analysis ofmanaged realignment schemes (Coombes et al., 2004) took into account social, environmental and economic consequences when evaluating direct and indirect benefits.
Direct cost estimates are common across the climate change impact literature as they are relatively simple to conduct and easy to explain. Such estimates are also becoming increasingly elaborate. For example, several studies of sea-level rise considered land and wetland loss, population displacement and coastal protection via dike construction (e.g., Tol, 2007). Socioeconomic variables, such as income and population density, are important in estimating wetland value but are often omitted when making such estimations (Brander et al., 2003b). But direct cost estimates ignore such effects as changes in land use and food prices if land is lost. One way to estimate these additional effects is to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to consider markets for all goods and services simultaneously, taking international trade and investment into account (e.g., Bosello et al., 2004). However, the major economic effects of climate change may well be associated with out-of-equilibrium phenomena (Moser, 2006). Also, few CGE models include adequate representations of physical processes and constraints.
Given the recent and anticipated increases in damages from extreme events, the insurance industry and others are making greater use of catastrophe models. These cover event generation (e.g., storm magnitude and frequency), hazard simulation (wind stresses and surge heights), damage modelling (extent of structural damage), and financial modelling (costs) (Muir-Wood et al., 2005). Stochastic modelling is used to generate thousands of simulated events and develop probabilistic approaches to quantifying the risks (Aliff, 2006; Chapter 2).
Methodologically, many challenges remain. Work to date has insufficiently crossed disciplinary boundaries (Visser, 2004). Although valuation techniques are continually being improved, and are now better linked to risk-based decision making, they remain imperfect, and in some instances controversial. This requires a transdisciplinary response from the social and natural sciences.
6.5.2 Socio-economic consequences under current climate conditions
Under current climate conditions, developing countries bear the main human burden of climate-related extreme events (Munich Re Group, 2004; CRED, 2005; UN Secretary General, 2006a). But it is equally evident that developed countries are not insulated from disastrous consequences (Boxes 6.4 and Chapter 7, Box 7.4). The societal costs of coastal disasters are typically quantified in terms of property losses and human deaths. For example, Figure 6.9 shows a significant threshold in real estatedamage costs related to flood levels. Post-event impacts on coastal businesses, families and neighbourhoods, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting (Heinz Center, 2000; Baxter, 2005). Finding an accurate way to document these unreported or hidden costs is a challenging problem that has received increasing attention in recent years. For example, Heinz Center (2000) showed that family roles and responsibilities after a disastrous coastal storm undergo profound changes associated with household and employment disruption, economic hardship, poor living conditions, and the disruption of pubic services such as education and preventive health care. Indirect costs imposed by health problems (Section 6.4.2.4) result from damaged homes and utilities, extreme temperatures, contaminated food, polluted water, debris- and mud-borne bacteria, and mildew and mould. Within the family, relationships after a disastrous climate-related event can become so stressful that family desertion and divorce may increase. Hence, accounting for the full range of costs is difficult, though essential to the accurate assessment of climaterelated coastal hazards.
 Figure 6.9. Real estate damage costs related to flood levels for the Rio de la Plata, Argentina (Barros et al., 2006). Tropical cyclones have major economic, social and environmental consequences for coastal areas (Box 6.4). Up to 119 million people are on average exposed every year to tropical cyclone hazard (UNDP, 2004).Worldwide, from 1980 to 2000, a total of more than 250,000 deaths were associated with tropical cyclones, of which 60% occurred in Bangladesh (this is less than the 300,000 killed in Bangladesh in 1970 by a single cyclone). The death toll has been reduced in the past decade due largely to improvements in warnings and preparedness, wider public awareness and a stronger sense of community responsibility (ISDR, 2004). The most-exposed countries have densely populated coastal areas, often comprising deltas and megadeltas (China, India, the Philippines, Japan, Bangladesh) (UNDP, 2004). In Cairns (Australia), cyclone experience and educationmay have contributed synergistically to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of residents to tropical cyclone and stormsurge hazards (Anderson-Berry, 2003). In Japan, the annual number of tropical cyclones and typhoonsmaking landfall showed no significant trend from 1950 to 2004, but the number of portrelated disasters decreased. This is attributed to increased protection against such disasters. However, annual average restoration expenditures over the period still amount to over US$250 million (Hay and Mimura, 2006). Between 1980 and 2005, the United States sustained 67 weather-related disasters, each with an overall damage cost of at least US$1 billion. Coastal states in the south-east US experienced the greatest number of such disasters. The total costs including both insured and uninsured losses for the period, adjusted to 2002, were over US$500 billion (NOAA, 2007). There are differing views as to whether climatic factors have contributed to the increasing frequency of major weather-related disasters along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the USA (Pielke Jr et al., 2005; Pielke and Landsea, 1998). But the most recent reviews by Trenberth et al. (2007) and Meehl et al. (2007) support the view that storm intensity has increased and this will continue with global warming. Whichever view is correct, the damage costs associated with these events are undisputedly high, and will increase into the future.
Erosion of coasts (Section 6.4.1.1) is a costly problem under present climatic conditions.About 20% of the European Union’s coastline suffered serious erosion impacts in 2004, with the area lost or seriously impacted estimated at 15 km2/yr. In 2001, annual expenditure on coastline protection in Europe was an estimated US$4 billion, up fromUS$3 billion in 1986 (Eurosion, 2004). The high rates of erosion experienced by beach communities on Delaware’s Atlantic coast (USA) are already requiring publicly funded beach nourishment projects in order to sustain the area’s attractiveness as a summer resort (Daniel, 2001). Along the east coast of the United States and Canada, sea-level rise over the last century has reduced the return period of extreme water levels, exacerbating the damage to fixed structures from modern storms compared to the same events a century ago (Zhang et al., 2000; Forbes et al., 2004a). These and other studies have raised major questions, including: (i) the feasibility, implications and acceptability of shoreline retreat; (ii) the appropriate type of shoreline protection (e.g., beach nourishment, hard protection or other typically expensive responses) in situations where rates of shoreline retreat are increasing; (iii) doubts as to the longer-term sustainability of such interventions; and (iv) whether insurance provided by the public and private sectors encourages people to build, and rebuild, in vulnerable areas.
6.5.3 Socio-economic consequences of climate change
Substantial progress has been made in evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of climate change, including changes in variability and extremes. In general, the results show that socio-economic costs will likely escalate as a result of climate change, as already shown for the broader impacts (Section 6.4). Most immediately, this will reflect increases in variability and extreme events and only in the longer term will costs (in the widest sense) be dominated by trends in average conditions, such as mean sea-level rise (van Aalst, 2006). The impacts of such changes in climate and sea level are overwhelmingly adverse. But benefits have also been identified, including reduced cold-water mortalities of many valuable fish and shellfish species (see Chapter 15, Section 15.4.3.2), expansion of areas suitable for aquaculture (see Chapter 5, Section 5.4.6.1), reduced hull strengthening and icebreaking costs, and the opening of new ocean routes due to reduced sea ice. Countries with large land areas generally benefit from competitive advantage effects (Bosello et al., 2004).
In the absence of an improvement to protection, coastal flooding could grow tenfold or more by the 2080s, to affect more than 100 million people/yr, due to sea-level rise alone (Figure 6.8). Figure 6.10 shows the consequences and total costs of a rise in sea level for developing and developed countries, and globally. This analysis assumes protection is implemented based on benefit-cost analysis, so the impacts are more consistent with enhanced protection in Figure 6.8, and investment is required for the protection. The consequences of sea-level rise will be far greater for developing countries, and protection costs will be higher, relative to those for developed countries.
Such global assessments are complemented by numerous regional, national and more detailed studies. The number of people in Europe subject to coastal erosion or flood risk in 2020 may exceed 158,000, while half of Europe’s coastal wetlands are expected to disappear as a result of sea-level rise (Eurosion, 2004). In Thailand, loss of land due to a sea-level rise of 50 cm and 100 cm could decrease national GDP by 0.36% and 0.69% (US$300 to 600 million) per year, respectively; due to location and other factors, the manufacturing sector in Bangkok could suffer the greatest damage, amounting to about 61% and 38% of the total damage, respectively (Ohno, 2001). The annual cost of protecting Singapore’s coast is estimated to be between US$0.3 and 5.7 million by 2050 and between US$0.9 and 16.8 million by 2100 (Ng and Mendelsohn, 2005). In the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port Said on the Nile delta coast of Egypt, a sea-level rise of 50 cm could result in over 2 million people abandoning their homes, the loss of 214,000 jobs and the loss of land valued at over US$35 billion (El-Raey, 1997).
 Figure 6.10. Causes, selected consequences (dryland and wetland loss, people displaced) and the total costs of an assumed sea-level, for developing countries, and as a global total. (based on Tol, 2007). 6.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints
This section first highlights issues that arise with interventions designed to reduce risks to natural and human coastal systems as a consequence of climate change. As recognised in earlier IPCC assessments (Bijlsma et al., 1996; McLean et al., 2001), a key conclusion is that reactive and standalone efforts to reduce climate-related risks to coastal systems are less effective than responses which are part of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), including longterm national and community planning (see also Kay and Adler, 2005). Within this context, subsequent sections describe the tools relevant to adaptation in coastal areas, options for adaptation of coastal systems, and current and planned adaptation initiatives. Examples of the costs of, and limits to, coastal adaptation are described, as are the trade-offs. Constraints on, limitations to, and strategies for strengthening adaptive capacity are also described. Finally, the links between coastal adaptation and efforts to mitigate climate change are discussed.
6.6.1 Adaptation to changes in climate and sea level (mes)
6.6.1.1 Issues and challenges
Recent extreme events (Box 6.5), whether climate-related or not, have highlighted many of the challenges inherent in adapting to changes in climate and sea level. One constraint on successful management of climate-related risks to coastal systems is the limited ability to characterise in appropriate detail how these systems, and their constituent parts, will respond to climate change drivers and to adaptation initiatives (Sections 6.2.4 and 6.4; Finkl, 2002). Of particular importance is understanding the extent to which natural coastal systems can adapt and therefore continue to provide essential life-supporting services to society. The lack of understanding of the coastal system, including the highly interactive nature and non-linear behaviour (Sections 6.2 and 6.4), means that failure to take an integrated approach to characterising climate-related risks increases the likelihood that the effectiveness of adaptation will be reduced, and perhaps even negated. Despite the growing emphasis on beach nourishment (Hanson et al., 2002), the longterm effectiveness and feasibility of such adaptive measures remains uncertain, especially with the multiple goals explicit within ICZM (Section 6.6.1.2). The question of who pays and who benefits from adaptation is another issue of concern. Public acceptance of the need for adaptation, and of specific measures, also needs to be increased (Neumann et al., 2000). The significant and diverse challenges are summarised in Table 6.9 and discussed further in the identified sections.
6.6.1.2 Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)
ICZM provides a major opportunity to address the many issues and challenges identified above. Since it offers advantages over purely sectoral approaches, ICZMis widely recognised and promoted as the most appropriate process to deal with climate change, sea-level rise and other current and long-term coastal challenges (Isobe, 2001; Nicholls and Klein, 2005; Harvey, 2006b). Enhancing adaptive capacity is an important part of ICZM. The extent to which climate change and sea-level rise are considered in coastal management plans is one useful measure of commitment to integration and sustainability. Responses to sea-level rise and climate change need to be implemented in the broader context and the wider objectives of coastal planning and management (Kennish, 2002; Moser, 2005). ICZM focuses on integrating and balancing multiple objectives in the planning process (Christie et al., 2005). Generation of equitably distributed social and environmental benefits is a key factor in ICZM process sustainability, but is difficult to achieve. Attention is also paid to legal and institutional frameworks that support integrative planning on local and national scales. Different social groups have contrasting, and often conflicting views on the relative priorities to be given to development, the environment and social considerations, as well as short and long-term perspectives (Visser, 2004).
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Box 6.5. Recent extreme events – lessons for coastal adaptation to climate change
Recent extreme events, both climate and non-climate related, that had major consequences for coastal systems, provide important messages for adaptation to climate change. Scientific literature and government reports emanating from hurricane and cyclone impacts (e.g., Cook Islands (Ingram, 2005); Katrina (US Government, 2006); Australia (Williams et al., 2007), flood impacts (e.g., Mumbai (Wisner, 2006)) and the Boxing Day Sumatran tsunami (UNEP, 2005; UNOCHA, 2005) include the following.
- An effective early warning communication and response system can reduce death and destruction;
- Hazard awareness education and personal hazard experience are important contributors to reducing community vulnerability;
- Many factors reduce the ability or willingness of people to flee an impending disaster, including the warning time, access and egress routes, and their perceived need to protect property, pets and possessions;
- Coastal landforms (coral reefs, barrier islands) and wetland ecosystems (mangroves, marshes) provide a natural first line of protection from storm surges and flooding, despite divergent views about the extent to which they reduce destruction;
- Recurrent events reduce the resilience of natural and artificial defences;
- In the aftermath of extreme events, additional trauma occurs in terms of dispossession and mental health;
- Uncoordinated and poorly regulated construction has accentuated vulnerability;
- Effective disaster prevention and response rely on strong governance and institutions, as well as adequate public preparedness.
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6.6.1.3 Tools for assessing adaptation needs and options
Since the TAR, many more tools have become available to support assessments of the need for adaptation and to identify appropriate interventions (Table 6.10).
6.6.1.4 Adaptation options
Figure 6.11 illustrates the evolution of thinking with respect to planned adaptation practices in the coastal zone. It also provides examples of current adaptation interventions. The capacity of coastal systems to regenerate after disasters, and to continue to produce resources and services for human livelihoods and well-being, is being tested with increasing frequency. This is highlighting the need to consider the resilience of coastal systems at broader scales and for their adaptive capacity to be actively managed and nurtured. Those involved in managing coastal systems have many practical options for simultaneously reducing risks related to current climate extremes and variability as well as adapting to climate change (Yohe, 2000; Daniel, 2001; Queensland Government, 2001; Townend and Pethick, 2002). This reflects the fact that many disaster and climate change response strategies are the same as those which contribute positively to present-day efforts to implement sustainable development, including enhancement of social equity, sound environmental management and wise resource use (Helmer and Hilhorst, 2006). This will help harmonise coastal planning and climate change adaptation and, in turn, strengthen the anticipatory response capacity of institutions (Few et al., 2004a). The timeframes for development are typically shorter than those for natural changes in the coastal region, though management is starting to address this issue. Examples include restoration and management of the Mississippi River and delta plain (Box 6.4) and management of coastal erosion in Europe (Eurosion, 2004; Defra, 2006; MESSINA, 2006). Identifying and selecting adaptation options can be guided by experience and best practice for reducing the adverse impacts of analogous, though causally unrelated, phenomena such as subsidence (natural and/or human-induced) and tsunami (Olsen et al., 2005). Based on this experience, it is highly advantageous to integrate and mainstream disaster management and adaptation to climate variability and change into wider coastal management, especially given relevant lessons from recent disasters (Box 6.5).
 Figure 6.11. Evolution of planned coastal adaptation practices.
Klein et al. (2001) describe three trends: (i) growing recognition of the benefits of ‘soft’protection and of ‘retreat and accommodate’ strategies; (ii) an increasing reliance on technologies to develop and manage information; and (iii) an enhanced awareness of the need for coastal adaptation to reflect local natural and socio-economic conditions. The decision as to which adaptation option is chosen is likely to be largely influenced by local socio-economic considerations (Knogge et al., 2004; Persson et al., 2006). It is also important to consider adaptation measures that reduce the direct threats to the survival of coastal ecosystems. These include marine protected areas and ‘no take’ reserves. Moser (2000) identified several factors that prompted local communities to act against coastal erosion. These included: (i) threats of or actual litigation; (ii) frustration among local officials regarding lack of clarity in local regulations, resulting in confusion as well as exposure to litigation; and (iii) concern over soaring numbers of applications for shorelinehardening structures, since these are perceived to have negative, often external, environmental impacts. The particular adaptation strategy adopted depends on many factors, including the value of the land or infrastructure under threat, the available financial and economic resources, political and cultural values, the local application of coastal management policies, and the ability to understand and implement adaptation options (Yohe, 2000).
6.6.2 Costs and benefits of adaptation
The body of information on costs of adaptation has increased dramatically since the TAR, covering the range from specific interventions to global aggregations.Most analyses quantify the costs of responses to the more certain and specific effects of sealevel rise. Selected indicative and comparative costs of coastal adaptation measures are presented in Table 6.11. They reveal a wide range in adaptation costs. But in most populated areas such interventions have costs lower than damage costs, even when just considering property losses (Tol, 2002, 2007). Climate change affects the structural stability and performance of coastal defence structures and hence significantly raises the costs of building new structures (Burgess and Townend, 2004) or upgrading existing structures (Townend and Burgess, 2004). Financial cost is not the only criterion on which adaptation should be judged – local conditions and circumstances might result in a more expensive option being favoured, especially where multiple benefits result.
Table 6.11. Selected information on costs and benefits of adaptation.
Optimal (benefit-cost) coastal protection costs and remaining number of people displaced given a 1 m rise in sea level (Tol, 2002) (see also Figure 6.11).
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| Region
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Protection Costs (109 US$)
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Number of People Displaced (106)
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| Africa
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92
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2.74
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| OECD Europe
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136
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0.22
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| World
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955
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8.61
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Construction costs for coastal defence in England and Wales (average total cost in US$/km) (Evans et al., 2004a)
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| Earth embankment
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970,000
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Culverts
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3.5 million
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| Protected embankment
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4.7 million
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Sea wall
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4.7 million
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| Dunes (excl. replenishment)
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93,000
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Groynes, breakwater (shingle beach)
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9 million
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Costs (US$/km) to protect against 1 m in rise in sea level for the USA (Neumann et al., 2000)
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| Dike or levee
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450,000-2.4 million
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Sea wall; bulkhead construction
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450,000-12 million
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Capital costs (US$/km) for selected coastal management options in New Zealand (Jenks et al., 2005)
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| Sand dune replanting, with community input (maintenance costs minimal)
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6,000 – 24,000
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| Dune restoration, including education programmes (maintenance costs minimal)
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15,000-35,000
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| Dune reshaping and replanting (maintenance costs minimal)
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50,000-300,000
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| Sea walls and revetments (maintenance costs high – full rebuild every 20 – 40 years)
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900,000-1.3 million
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Direct losses, costs and benefits of adaptation to 65 cm sea-level rise in Pearl Delta, China (Hay and Mimura, 2005)
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| Tidal level
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Loss (US$ billion)
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Cost (US$ billion)
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Benefit (US$ billion)
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| Highest recorded
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5.2
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0.4
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4.8
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| 100 year high water
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4.8
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0.4
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4.4
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6.6.3 Limits and trade-offs in adaptation
Recent studies suggest that there are limits to the extent to which natural and human coastal systems can adapt even to the more immediate changes in climate variability and extreme events, including in more developed countries (Moser, 2005; [6.6]). For example, without either adaptation or mitigation, the impacts of sea-level rise and other climate change such as more intense storms (Section 6.3.2) will be substantial, suggesting that some coastal low-lying areas, including atolls, may become unviable by 2100 (Barnett and Adger, 2003; Nicholls, 2004), with widespread impacts in many other areas. This may be reinforced by risk perception and disinvestment from these vulnerable areas. Adaptation could reduce impacts by a factor of 10 to 100 (Hall et al., 2006; Tol, 2007) and, apart from some small island nations, this appears to come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided (Nicholls and Tol, 2006). However, the analysis is idealised, and while adaptation is likely to be widespread, it remains less clear if coastal societies can fully realise this potential for adaptation (see [6.6]).
Adaptation for present climate risks is often inadequate and the ability to manage further increases in climate-related risks is frequently lacking. Moreover, increases in coastal development and population will magnify the risks of coastal flooding and other hazards (Section 6.2.2; Pielke Jr et al., 2005). Most measures to compensate and control the salinisation of coastal aquifers are expensive and laborious (Essink, 2001). Frequent floods impose enormous constraints on development. For example, Bangladesh has struggled to put sizeable infrastructure in place to prevent flooding, but with limited success (Ahmad and Ahmed, 2003). Vietnam’s transition from state central planning to a more market-oriented economy has had negative impacts on social vulnerability, with a decrease in institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with flooding and typhoon impacts in the coastal environment (Adger, 2000). In a practical sense adaptation options for coral reefs are limited (Buddemeier, 2001) as is the case for most ecosystems. The continuing observed degradation of many coastal ecosystems (Section 6.2.2), despite the considerable efforts to reverse the trend, suggests that it will also be difficult to alleviate the added stresses resulting from climate change.
Knowledge and skill gaps are important impediments to understanding potential impacts, and thus to developing appropriate adaptation strategies for coastal systems (Crimp et al., 2004). The public often has conflicting views on the issues of sustainability, hard and soft defences, economics, the environment and consultation. Identifying the information needs of local residents, and facilitating access to information, are integral components in the process of public understanding and behavioural change (Myatt et al., 2003; Moser, 2005, 2006; Luers and Moser, 2006).
There are also important trade-offs in adaptation. For instance, while hard protection can greatly reduce the impacts of sea level and climate change on socio-economic systems, this is to the detriment of associated natural ecosystems due to coastal squeeze (Knogge et al., 2004; Rochelle-Newall et al., 2005). Managed retreat is an alternative response, but at what cost to socio-economic systems? General principles that can guide decision making in this regard are only beginning to be developed (Eurosion, 2004; Defra, 2006). Stakeholders will be faced with difficult choices, including questions as to whether traditional uses should be retained, whether invasive alien species or native species increasing in abundance should be controlled, whether planned retreat is an appropriate response to rising relative sea level or whether measures can be taken to reduce erosion. Decisions will need to take into account social and economic as well as ecological concerns (Adam, 2002). Considering these factors, the US Environmental Protection Agency is preparing sea-level rise planning maps that assign all shores along its Atlantic Coast to categories indicating whether shore protection is certain, likely, unlikely, or precluded by existing conservation policies (Titus, 2004). In the Humber estuary (UK) sea-level rise is reducing the standard of protection, and increasing erosion.Adaptation initiatives include creation of new intertidal habitat, which may promote more costeffective defences and also helps to offset the loss of protected sites, including losses due to coastal squeeze (Winn et al., 2003).
Effective policies for developments that relate to the coast are sensitive to resource use conflicts, resource depletion and to pollution or resource degradation.Absence of an integrated holistic approach to policy-making, and a failure to link the process of policy-making with the substance of policy, results in outcomes that some would consider inferior when viewed within a sustainability framework (Noronha, 2004). Proponents ofmanaged retreat argue that provision of long-term sustainable coastal defences must start with the premise that “coasts need space” (Rochelle-Newall et al., 2005). Some argue that governmentsmust work to increase public awareness, scientific knowledge, and political will to facilitate such a retreat from the “sacrosanct” existing shoreline (Pethick, 2002). Others argue that the highest priority should be the transfer of property rights in lesser developed areas, to allow for changing setbacks in anticipation of an encroaching ocean. This makes inland migration of wetlands and beaches an expectationwell before the existing shoreline becomes sacrosanct (Titus, 2001). Property rights and land use often make it difficult to achieve such goals, as shown by the post-Katrina recovery of New Orleans. Economic, social, ecological, legal and political lines of thinking have to be combined in order to achieve meaningful policies for the sustainable development of groundwater reserves and for the protection of subsurface ecosystems (Danielopol et al., 2003). Socio-economic and cultural conditions frequently present barriers to choosing and implementing the most appropriate adaptation to sea-level rise. Many such barriers can often be resolved by way of education at all levels, including local seminars and workshops for relevant stakeholders (Kobayashi, 2004; Tompkins et al., 2005a). Institutional strengthening and other interventions are also of importance (Bettencourt et al., 2005).
6.6.4 Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate climate changes or to expand the range of variability with which it can cope (see Chapter 17 for further explanation). The adaptive capacity of coastal communities to cope with the effects of severe climate impacts declines if there is a lack of physical, economic and institutional capacities to reduce climate-related risks and hence the vulnerability of highrisk communities and groups. But even a high adaptive capacity may not translate into effective adaptation if there is no commitment to sustained action (Luers and Moser, 2006).
Current pressures are likely to adversely affect the integrity of coastal ecosystems and thereby their ability to cope with additional pressures, including climate change and sea-level rise. This is a particularly significant factor in areas where there is a high level of development, large coastal populations and high levels of interference with coastal systems. Natural coastal habitats, such as dunes and wetlands, have a buffering capacity which can help reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Equally, improving shoreline management for non-climate change reasons will also have benefits in terms of responding to sea-level rise and climate change (Nicholls and Klein, 2005). Adopting a static policy approach towards sea-level rise conflicts with sustaining a dynamic coastal system that responds to perturbations via sediment movement and long-term evolution (Crooks, 2004). In the case of coastal megacities, maintaining and enhancing both resilience and adaptive capacity for weather-related hazards are critically important policy and management goals. The dual approach brings benefits in terms of linking analysis of present and future hazardous conditions. It also enhances the capacity for disaster prevention and preparedness, disaster recovery and for adaptation to climate change (Klein et al., 2003).
6.6.4.1 Constraints and limitations
Yohe and Tol (2002) assessed the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems’ coping capacities. They suggest focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity (see Section 17.3.1). The future status of coastal wetlands appears highly sensitive to societal attitudes to the environment (Table 6.1), and this could be a more important control of their future status than sea-level rise (Nicholls, 2004). This highlights the importance of the socio-economic conditions (e.g., institutional capabilities; informed and engaged public) as a fundamental control of impacts with and without climate change (Tompkins et al., 2005b). Hazard awareness education and personal hazard experience are significant and important contributors to reducing community vulnerability. But despite such experience and education, some unnecessary and avoidable losses associated with tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards are still highly likely to occur (Anderson-Berry, 2003). These losses will differ across socio-economic groups, as has been highlighted recently by Hurricane Katrina. The constraints and limitations on adaptation by coastal systems, both natural and human, highlight the benefits for deeper public discourse on climate risk management, adaptation needs, challenges and allocation and use of resources.
6.6.4.2 Capacity-strengthening strategies
Policies that enhance social and economic equity, reduce poverty, increase consumption efficiencies, decrease the discharge of wastes, improve environmental management, and increase the quality of life of vulnerable and other marginal coastal groups can collectively advance sustainable development, and hence strengthen adaptive capacity and coping mechanisms. Many proposals to strengthen adaptive capacity have been made including: mainstreaming the building of resilience and reduction of vulnerability (Agrawala and van Aalst, 2005; McFadden et al., 2007b); full and open data exchange (Hall, 2002); scenarios as a tool for communities to explore future adaptation policies and practices (Poumadère et al., 2005); public participation, co-ordination among oceansrelated agencies (West, 2003); research on responses of ecological and socio-economic systems, including the interactions between ecological, socio-economic and climate systems (Parson et al., 2003); research on linkages between upstream and downstream process to underpin comprehensive coastal management plans (Contreras-Espinosa and Warner, 2004); research to generate useful, usable and actionable information that helps close the science-policy gap (Hay and Mimura, 2006); strengthening institutions and enhancing regional co-operation and co-ordination (Bettencourt et al., 2005); and short-term training for practitioners at all levels of management (Smith, 2002a).
6.6.5 The links between adaptation and mitigation in coastal and low-lying areas
Adaptation (e.g., coastal planning and management) and mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) are responses to climate change, which can be considered together (King, 2004) (see Chapter 18). The response of sea-level rise to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is slower than for other climate factors (Meehl et al., 2007) and mitigation alone will not stop growth in potential impacts (Nicholls and Lowe, 2006). However, mitigation decreases the rate of future rise and the ultimate rise, limiting and slowing the need for adaptation as shown by Hall et al. (2005). Hence Nicholls and Lowe (2006) and Tol (2007) argue that adaptation and mitigation need to be considered together when addressing the consequences of climate change for coastal areas. Collectively these interventions can provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than consideration of each policy alone.
Adaptation will provide immediate and longer-term reductions in risk in the specific area that is adapting. On the other hand, mitigation reduces future risks in the longer term and at the global scale. Identifying the optimal mix is problematic as it requires consensus on many issues, including definitions, indicators and the significance of thresholds. Importantly, mitigation removes resources from adaptation, and benefits are not immediate, so investment in adaptation may appear preferable, especially in developing countries (Goklany, 2005). The opposite view of the need for urgent mitigation has recently been argued (Stern, 2007). Importantly, the limits to adaptation may mean that the costs of climate change are underestimated (Section 6.6.3), especially in the long term. These findings highlight the need to consider impacts beyond 2100, in order to assess the full implications of different mitigation and adaptation policy mixes ([6.6]).
6.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development
The main conclusions are reported in the Executive Summary and are reviewed here in the context of sustainable development. Coastal ecosystems are dynamic, spatially constrained, and attractive for development. This leads to increasing multiple stresses under current conditions (Section 6.2.2), often resulting in significant degradation and losses, especially to economies highly dependent on coastal resources, such as small islands. Trends in human development along coasts amplify their vulnerability, even if climate does not change. For example, in China 100 million people moved from inland to the coast in the last twenty years (Dang, 2003), providing significant benefits to the national economy, but presenting major challenges for coastal management. This qualitative trend is mirrored in most populated coastal areas and raises the conflict between conservation and development (Green and Penning-Rowsell, 1999). Equally the pattern of development can have tremendous inertia (Klein et al., 2002) and decisions made today may have implications centuries into the future ([6.6]). Climate change and sea-level rise increase the challenge of achieving sustainable development in coastal areas, with the most serious impediments in developing countries, in part due to their lower adaptive capacity. It will make achieving the Millennium Development Goals (UN Secretary General, 2006b) more difficult, especially the Goal of Ensuring Environmental Sustainability (reversing loss of environmental resources, and improving lives of slum dwellers, many of whom are coastal). Adapting effectively to climate change and sea-level rise will involve substantial investment, with resources diverted from other productive uses. Even with the large investment possible in developed countries, residual risk remains, as shown by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans (Box 6.4), requiring a portfolio of responses that addresses human safety across all events (protection, warnings, evacuation, etc.) and also can address multiple goals (e.g., protection of the environment as well as adaptation to climate change) (Evans et al., 2004a; Jonkman et al., 2005). Long-term sea-level rise projections mean that risks will grow for many generations unless there is a substantial and ongoing investment in adaptation ([6.6]). Hence, sustainability for coastal areas appears to depend upon a combination of adaptation and mitigation (Sections 6.3.2 and 6.6.5). There will be substantial benefits if plans are developed and implemented in order to address coastal changes due to climate and other factors, such as those processes that also contribute to relative sea-level rise (Rodolfo and Siringan, 2006). This requires increased effort to move from reactive to more proactive responses in coastal management. Strengthening integrated multidisciplinary and participatory approaches will also help improve the prospects for sustaining coastal resources and communities. There is also much to be learnt from experience and retrospective analyses of coastal disasters (McRobie et al., 2005). Technological developments are likely to assist this process, most especially in softer technologies associated with monitoring (Bradbury et al., 2005), predictive modelling and broad-scale assessment (Burgess et al., 2003; Cowell et al., 2003a; Boruff et al., 2005) and assessment of coastal management actions, both present and past (Klein et al., 2001). Traditional practices can be an important component of the coastal management toolkit.
6.8 Key uncertainties, research gaps and priorities
This assessment shows that the level of knowledge is not consistent with the potential severity of the problem of climate change and coastal zones.While knowledge is not adequate in any aspect, uncertainty increases as we move from the natural sub-system to the human sub-system, with the largest uncertainties concerning their interaction (Figure 6.1). An understanding of this interaction is critical to a comprehensive understanding of human vulnerability in coastal and low-lying areas and should include the role of institutional adaptation and public participation (Section 6.4.3).While research is required at all scales, improved understanding at the physiographic unit scale (e.g., coastal cells, deltas or estuaries) would have particular benefits, and support adaptation to climate change and wider coastal management. There also remains a strong focus on sea-level rise, which needs to be broadened to include all the climate drivers in the coastal zone (Table 6.2). Finally, any response to climate change has to address the other non- climate drivers of coastal change in terms of understanding potential impacts and responses, as they will interact with climate change.As recognised in earlier IPCC assessments and the Millennium Ecosystem and LOICZ Assessments (Agardy et al., 2005; Crossland et al., 2005), these other drivers generally exacerbate the impacts of climate change.
|
[6.6] Long-term sea-level rise impacts (beyond 2100)
The timescales of ocean warming are much longer than those of surface air temperature rise. As a result, sea-level rise due to thermal expansion is expected to continue at a significant rate for centuries, even if climate forcing is stabilised (Meehl et al., 2005; Wigley, 2005). Deglaciation of small land-based glaciers, and possibly the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets, may contribute large additional rises, with irreversible melting of Greenland occurring for a sustained global temperature rise of 1.1 to 3.8°C above today’s global average temperature: this is likely to happen by 2100 under the A1B scenario, for instance (Meehl et al., 2007). More than 10 m of sea-level rise is possible, albeit over very long time spans (centuries or longer), and this has been termed ‘the commitment to sea-level rise’. The potential exposure to these changes, just based on today’s socioeconomic conditions, is significant both regionally and globally (Table 6.12) and growing (Section 6.3.1). Thus there is a conflict between long-term sea-level rise and present-day human development patterns and migration to the coast (Nicholls et al., 2006).
The rate of sea-level rise is uncertain and a large rise (>0.6 m to 0.7 m/century) remains a low probability/high impact risk (Meehl et al., 2007). Some analyses suggest that protection would be an economically optimum response in most developed locations, even for an arbitrary 2 m/century scenario (Anthoff et al., 2006). However, sea-level rise will accumulate beyond 2100, increasing impact potential (Nicholls and Lowe, 2006). Further, there are several potential constraints to adaptation which are poorly understood (Section 6.4.3; Nicholls and Tol, 2006; Tol et al., 2006). This raises long-term questions about the implications of ‘hold the line’ versus ‘retreat the line’ adaptation policies and, more generally, how best to approach coastal spatial planning. While shoreline management is starting to address such issues for the 21st century (Eurosion, 2004; Defra, 2006), the long timescales of sea-level rise suggest that coastal management, including spatial planning, needs to take a long-term view on adaptation to sea-level rise and climate change, especially with long-life infrastructure such as nuclear power stations.
| Exposure by factor and elevation above mean high water
|
| Region
|
Land area (km2)
|
Population (millions)
|
GDP MER (US$ billions)
|
| 1m
|
5m
|
10m
|
1m
|
5m
|
10m
|
1m
|
5m
|
10m
|
| Africa
|
118
|
183
|
271
|
8
|
14
|
22
|
6
|
11
|
19
|
| Asia
|
875
|
1548
|
2342
|
108
|
200
|
294
|
453
|
843
|
1185
|
| Australia
|
135
|
198
|
267
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
38
|
51
|
67
|
| Europe
|
139
|
230
|
331
|
14
|
21
|
30
|
305
|
470
|
635
|
| Latin America
|
317
|
509
|
676
|
10
|
17
|
25
|
39
|
71
|
103
|
| North America
|
640
|
1000
|
1335
|
4
|
14
|
22
|
103
|
358
|
561
|
| Global (total)
|
2223
|
3667
|
5223
|
145
|
268
|
397
|
944
|
1802
|
2570
|
|
The following research initiatives would substantially reduce these uncertainties and increase the effectiveness and science base of long-term coastal planning and policy development.
Establishing better baselines of actual coastal changes, including local factors and sea-level rise, and the climate and non-climate drivers, through additional observations and expanded monitoring. This would help to better establish the causal links between climate and coastal change which tend to remain inferred rather than observed (Section 6.2.5), and support model development.
- Improving predictive capacity for future coastal change due to climate and other drivers, through field observations, experiments and model development. A particular challenge will be understanding thresholds under multiple drivers of change (Sections 6.2.4; 6.4.1).
- Developing a better understanding of the adaptation of the human systems in the coastal zone. At the simplest this could be an inventory of assets at risk, but much more could be done in terms of deepening our understanding of the qualitative trends suggested in the coastal zone. At the simplest this could be done in terms of deepening our understanding of qualitative trends suggest in Table 6.1 (see also Section 6.4.2)
- Improving impact and vulnerability assessments within an integrated assessment framework that includes naturalhuman sub-system interactions. This requires a strong inter-disciplinary approach and the targeting of the most vulnerable areas, such as populated megadeltas and deltas, small islands and coastal cities (Section 6.4.3). Improving systems of coastal planning and zoning and institutions that can enforce regulations for clearer coastal governance is required in many countries.
- Developing methods for identification and prioritisation of coastal adaptation options. The effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation interventions need to be considered, including immediate benefits and the longer term goal of sustainable development (Sections 6.6; 6.7).
- Developing and expanding networks to share knowledge and experience on climate change and coastal management among coastal scientists and practitioners.
These issues need to be explored across the range of spatial scales: from local to global scale assessments and, given the long timescales of sea-level rise, implications beyond the 21st century should not be ignored. Thus this research agenda needs to be taken forward across a broad range of activities from the needs of coastal management and adaptation to global integrated assessments and the benefits of mitigation.While some existing global research efforts are pushing in the direction that is recommended, e.g., the IGBP/IHDP LOICZ Science Plan (Kremer et al., 2004), much more effort is required to achieve these goals, especially those referring to the human, integrated assessment and adaptation goals, and at local to regional scales (Few et al., 2004a).
Endnotes
Contributors
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Lead Authors:
Virginia Burkett (USA), Jorge Codignotto (Argentina), John Hay (New Zealand), Roger McLean (Australia), Sachooda Ragoonaden
(Mauritius), Colin D. Woodroffe (Australia)
Contributing Authors:
Pamela Abuodha (Kenya), Julie Arblaster (USA/Australia), Barbara Brown (UK), Don Forbes (Canada), Jim Hall (UK), Sari Kovats (UK),
Jason Lowe (UK), Kathy McInnes (Australia), Susanne Moser (USA), Susanne Rupp-Armstrong (UK), Yoshiki Saito (Japan),
Richard S.J. Tol (Ireland)
Review Editors:
Job Dronkers (The Netherlands), Geoff Love (Australia), Jin-Eong Ong (Malaysia)
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Print Version
Print versions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports are available from Cambridge University Press.
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